Projected Child Population, by Race/Ethnicity
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- Definition: Estimated future child population ages 0-17, by race/ethnicity (e.g., in 2060, 338,752 multiracial children are expected to live in California).Estimated percentage of the future child population ages 0-17, by race/ethnicity (e.g., in 2060, it is expected that 4.3% of California children will be multiracial).
- Data Source: California Dept. of Finance, Population Projections (Mar. 2020).
- Footnote: Race/ethnicity categories are mutually exclusive.
Learn More About Demographics
- Measures of Demographics on Kidsdata.org
Indicators on kidsdata.org cover a range of demographic measures from a variety of sources:
The number of births overall and per 1,000 women (the general fertility rate), and the number and percentage of births by mother's race/ethnicity, come from the California Department of Public Health (CDPH).
The number and percentage of births by mother's marital status are available for California and the U.S.; these data come from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and also are available by mother's race/ethnicity.*
Estimates of the child population from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community survey are available overall and by race/ethnicity for counties, cities, school districts and legislative districts; also available are estimates of the number and percentage of California and U.S. children living in rural and urban areas.
County-level estimates (from 1995) and projections (to 2060) of the child population overall, by gender and age group, and by race/ethnicity, are available from the California Department of Finance; also available are estimates and projections for the total population.Data based on student reports of parent education level, youth sexual orientation, and transgender status come from the California Healthy Kids Survey (CHKS); depending on the indicator, estimates are available by grade level (7, 9, 11, and/or non-traditional), gender, level of school connectedness, parent education level, and sexual orientation.**
*California data from CDPH and CDC should not be compared due to potential differences in race/ethnicity coding.
**State-level CHKS estimates, although derived from the Biennial State CHKS, may differ from data published in Biennial State CHKS reports due to differences in grade-level classification of students in continuation high schools. Levels of school connectedness are based on a scale created from responses to five questions about feeling safe, close to people, and a part of school, being happy at school, and about teachers treating students fairly.
- Births, by Mother's Marital Status (California & U.S. Only)
- Child Population (Regions of 10,000 Residents or More)
- Child Population, by Race/Ethnicity (Regions of 10,000 Residents or More)
- Children in Rural and Urban Areas (California & U.S. Only)
- Child Population, by County
- Total Population
- Projected Child Population, by County
- Projected Total Population
- Highest Level of Parent Education, by Child's Grade Level
- Youth Sexual Orientation, by Grade Level
- Transgender Youth, by Grade Level
- Student Demographics
- Family Structure
- Children Living with Foreign-Born Parents
- Children Living with Foreign-Born Parents, by Income Level
- Foreign-Born Population, by Age Group
- Infant Mortality
- Teen Births
- Why This Topic Is Important
Child and family demographic trends help project potential needs for education, child care, health care, and other services. Demographic projections point to an overall shortage of children relative to older populations, which will lead to workforce and taxpayer shortages in the coming decades (1, 2). This means each child is more important to the future of California and the U.S. than ever before (1). It also means that leaders need to invest in programs and policies that nurture and help all children reach their potential, particularly those facing disadvantage, and to align service systems with shifting demographics, such as increasing racial and ethnic diversity (1, 2). For example, leaders can ensure that culturally appropriate services are available for families and that communities with higher concentrations of children have adequate resources in place to support them.
Demographic factors also matter because the circumstances into which children are born and grow up—as well as larger structural forces such as economics, institutions, and policies—strongly influence wellness over the lifecourse (3). Decades of research demonstrate inequities in children's well being by race/ethnicity, parent education level, socioeconomic status, geography, and other factors (3). In addition, characteristics such as youth sexual orientation and gender identification are important, as LGBTQ+ youth are at increased risk for bullying and violence victimization, substance abuse, homelessness, and other negative outcomes (3, 4). The demographic composition and circumstances of children, youth, and families can provide critical insight into population needs.For more information, see kidsdata.org’s Research & Links section. Also see the following topics on kidsdata.org: Student Demographics, Family Structure, and Immigrants.
Sources for this narrative:
1. Frey, W. H. (2021). The demographic case for investing in America's children. Brookings Institution. Retrieved from: https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-demographic-case-for-investing-in-americas-children
2. Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics. (2021). Demographic background. In America's children: Key national indicators of well-being, 2021. Retrieved from: https://www.childstats.gov/americaschildren/demo.asp
3. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2019). Vibrant and healthy kids: Aligning science, practice, and policy to advance health equity. National Academies Press. Retrieved from: https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25466/vibrant-and-healthy-kids-aligning-science-practice-and-policy-to
4. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2020). Understanding the well-being of LGBTQI+ populations. National Academies Press. Retrieved from: https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25877/understanding-the-well-being-of-lgbtqi-populations
- How Children Are Faring
The number of children in California has declined since the mid-2000s, from more than 9.5 million in 2004 to fewer than 9 million in 2021. Population projections indicate this figure will fall below 8.5 million by 2030. The proportion of children in the state's total population also is decreasing, from an estimated 28% in 1995 to 23% in 2021, with a projected drop to 18% by 2045. In line with these trends, California's birth rate has declined in recent decades, from 76 births per 1,000 women in 1995 to 54 per 1,000 in 2021.
Population structure and dynamics vary widely at the local level. According to 2021 estimates, five Southern California counties are home to more than half of the state's child population—Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino—with nearly one in four children living in Los Angeles County alone. Counties in the Central Valley have among the highest birth rates and proportions of children within the population; e.g., the birth rate in Kings County in 2021 was 72 per 1,000 women (compared with 47 per 1,000 for Los Angeles and 39 per 1,000 for San Francisco), and the percentage of children in Kings County relative to the population overall was 31% (compared with 22% for Los Angeles and 15% for San Francisco).
In 2021, Hispanic/Latino children made up nearly half (49%) of the state's child population, up from 41% in 1995, and white children made up less than one-third (30%), down from 40% in 1995. At the county level, estimates of the proportion of Hispanic/Latino children in the total child population ranged from 13% to 87%, while the proportion of white children ranged from 10% to 77%. Statewide, 11% of California children were Asian, 5% were African American/black, 5% were multiracial, and fewer than 1% were American Indian/Alaska Native or Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander.Estimates of parent education levels, available from 2017-2019 surveys of public school students, indicate that more than one in three California 7th, 9th, and 11th graders had a parent or guardian who completed at least a 4-year college degree, while more than one in ten had parents who did not finish high school. Students in non-traditional programs, those with low levels of school connectedness, and Hispanic/Latino youth were more likely to have parents and guardians who did not finish high school than their peers in other groups.
Estimates of youth sexual orientation from the same surveys show that 84% of 11th graders identified as straight or heterosexual, 6% bisexual, 2% gay or lesbian, and 1% something else, while 3% were unsure about their sexual orientation. Transgender youth accounted for close to 1% of 11th graders statewide, with another 1% unsure whether they were transgender.
- Policy Implications
In order to plan appropriate policies and programs to meet community needs, policymakers need to understand the size and composition of the populations they serve, how that varies by geography, and how trends are changing. Health and well being are impacted profoundly by the conditions in which children are raised (1). Data on kidsdata.org and elsewhere show persistent inequities in child and youth outcomes by demographic factors such as geography, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parent education level, and LGBTQ status (1). For example, children of color and low-income children generally fare worse across measures of health and well being for reasons that are avoidable (1). Policymakers have a role in addressing these disparities and ensuring that all children and families, regardless of social position or circumstance, have equitable opportunities to thrive (1).
Demographic projections suggest additional reasons to invest in children. Data show growing numbers of retiring seniors, a shrinking child population, and expected workforce and taxpayer shortages in the coming decades, making children a more important resource than ever before (2). Society's reliance on a decreasing number of children creates a new urgency to ensure today's children and families have the support they need to reach their full potential.
Policy and program options to address inequities in child well being and promote healthy, thriving children and families include:
For more information, see kidsdata.org’s Research & Links section. Also see Policy Implications on kidsdata.org under Immigrants, Student Demographics, and Family Income and Poverty.
- Investing in the health and development of young children, especially those from low-income families; in particular, ensuring that all families have access to affordable, high-quality child care and early education (1, 3, 4)
- Fostering stable, nurturing family relationships and home environments by ensuring that effective services are in place, including culturally appropriate parenting education, family support, and home-visiting services for families in need (1, 4)
- Maintaining and strengthening social safety net programs (e.g., tax credits, food assistance, and public health insurance), and increasing enrollment among eligible children and families (1, 4, 5, 6)
- Ensuring that all families have access to comprehensive health coverage and that every member receives patient centered, culturally responsive, coordinated health care within a medical home (5, 7, 8)
- Improving the availability and quality of preconception, prenatal, and postpartum care, particularly for women of color and those who are low income (1, 7)
- Supporting approaches to health care that go beyond treating illness to addressing social determinants of health, such as access to healthy food, safe neighborhoods, and affordable housing (1, 7, 9)
- Ensuring that all children and families have access to affordable, trauma-informed mental health care, substance abuse treatment, and other community resources (1, 4, 7, 10)
- Promoting safe, healthy schools and communities in which all youth have supportive relationships and positive opportunities (4, 7, 10)
- Ensuring equitable access to high-quality K-12 education and affordable postsecondary education, including adult education opportunities for parents (1, 3, 7, 11)
- Building neighborhoods designed to promote health; as part of this, incentivizing collaboration among community development, affordable housing, and business stakeholders (9, 11)
- Allocating community resources and distributing services in alignment with demographic trends, so that neighborhoods with the largest concentrations of children have adequate infrastructure and services to support family needs (2, 9, 11)
- Promoting cross-sector efforts to address structural racism and to target the root causes of economic, educational, and environmental inequities (1, 7, 9, 11)
Sources for this narrative:
1. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2019). Vibrant and healthy kids: Aligning science, practice, and policy to advance health equity. National Academies Press. Retrieved from: https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/25466/vibrant-and-healthy-kids-aligning-science-practice-and-policy-to
2. Frey, W. H. (2021). The demographic case for investing in America's children. Brookings Institution. Retrieved from: https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-demographic-case-for-investing-in-americas-children
3. Hill, L., et al. (2021). California's future: Education. Public Policy Institute of California. Retrieved from: https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-education
4. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (n.d.). Essentials for childhood: Creating safe, stable, nurturing relationships and environments for all children. Retrieved from: https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/childabuseandneglect/essentials
5. Radley, D. C., et al. (2021). Achieving racial and ethnic equity in U.S. health care: A scorecard of state performance. Commonwealth Fund. Retrieved from: https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/scorecard/2021/nov/achieving-racial-ethnic-equity-us-health-care-state-performance
6. Danielson, C., et al. (2021). California's future: Safety net. Public Policy Institute of California. Retrieved from: https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-future-safety-net
7. Trent, M., et al. (2019). The impact of racism on child and adolescent health. Pediatrics, 144(2), e20191765. Retrieved from: https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/144/2/e20191765/38466/The-Impact-of-Racism-on-Child-and-Adolescent
8. National Resource Center for Patient/Family-Centered Medical Home. (2020). Why is medical home important? American Academy of Pediatrics. Retrieved from: https://medicalhomeinfo.aap.org/overview/Pages/Evidence.aspx
9. Acevedo-Garcia, D., et al. (2020). Racial and ethnic inequities in children's neighborhoods: Evidence from the new Child Opportunity Index 2.0. Health Affairs, 39(10), 1693-1701. Retrieved from: https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/abs/10.1377/hlthaff.2020.00735
10. Office of the Surgeon General. (2021). Protecting youth mental health: The U.S. Surgeon General's advisory. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Retrieved from: https://www.hhs.gov/surgeongeneral/priorities/youth-mental-health
11. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (2021). Community health and economic prosperity: Engaging businesses as stewards and stakeholders—A report of the Surgeon General. Retrieved from: https://www.hhs.gov/surgeongeneral/reports-and-publications/community-health-economic-prosperity
- Research & Links
- Websites with Related Information
- California School Boards Association: Governance and Policy Resources
- Center for the Study of Social Policy: LGBTQ+
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: Health Equity
- Child Trends: Racial Equity
- Gay, Lesbian and Straight Education Network (GLSEN)
- Healthy People 2030: Populations. U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services.
- Kaiser Family Foundation: Racial Equity and Health Policy
- Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Health: LGBT Youth. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
- Opportunity Insights
- Pew Research Center: Demographic Research
- Public Policy Institute of California: Population
- Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Health: Professional Resource Guide. Maternal and Child Health Digital Library.
- UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute
- Urban Institute: Social Determinants of Health
- Key Reports and Research
- Achieving Racial and Ethnic Equity in U.S. Health Care: A Scorecard of State Performance. (2021). Commonwealth Fund. Radley, D.C., et al.
- Advances in Research with LGBTQ Youth in Schools. (2016). Psychology of Sexual Orientation and Gender Diversity. Heck, N. C., et al.
- California LGBTQ Youth Report. (2019). Human Rights Campaign Foundation.
- California's Future. (2021). Public Policy Institute of California. Hanak, E., et al.
- Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity. (2017). National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
- Disparities for LGBTQ and Gender Nonconforming Adolescents. (2018). Pediatrics. Baams, L.
- Dramatic Increase in the Proportion of Births Outside of Marriage in the United States from 1990 to 2016. (2018). Child Trends. Wildsmith, E., et al.
- Ensuring Comprehensive Care and Support for Transgender and Gender-Diverse Children and Adolescents. (2018). Pediatrics. Rafferty, J., et al.
- Improving Outcomes for Boys and Young Men of Color. (2016). Urban Institute. Ferguson, R. F., & Simms, M.
- Key Facts About Asian Americans, a Diverse and Growing Population. (2021). Pew Research Center. Budiman, A., & Ruiz, N. G.
- Landscape of Opportunity. (2021). California Pan-Ethnic Health Network.
- LGBTQ Youth in California’s Public Schools: Differences Across the State. (2017). Williams Institute. Choi, S. K., et al.
- Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective. (2019). National Bureau of Economic Research. Chetty, R., et al.
- State of the Field: Two-Generation Approaches to Family Well-Being. (2021). Mosle, A. & Sims, M.
- U.S. Hispanic Population Continued Its Geographic Spread in the 2010s. (2022). S. Passel, Jeffrey, et al.
- Vibrant and Healthy Kids: Aligning Science, Practice, and Policy to Advance Health Equity. (2019). National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.
- Visualizing Trends for Children of Immigrants. (2022). Urban Institute.
- County/Regional Reports
- A Portrait of Los Angeles County: Los Angeles County Human Development Report 2017-2018. (2018). Measure of America. Lewis, K., & Burd-Sharps, S.
- A Portrait of Sonoma County. (2022). Measure of America. Lewis, K., et al.
- Annual Report on the Conditions of Children in Orange County. Orange County Children's Partnership.
- Birth Trends and Family Demographics Across Los Angeles County: How They Are Changing and Why It Matters. (2017). Children's Data Network. McCroskey, J., et al.
- Key Indicators of Health by Service Planning Area. (2017). Los Angeles County Dept. of Public Health.
- Pathway to Progress: Indicators of Young Child Well-Being in Los Angeles County. First 5 LA.
- Santa Monica Youth Wellbeing Report Card. Santa Monica Cradle to Career.
- Sexual and Gender Minority Youth in Foster Care: Assessing Disproportionality and Disparities in Los Angeles. (2014). Williams Institute, et al. Wilson, B. D. M., et al.
- The Generational Future of Los Angeles: Projections to 2030 and Comparisons to Recent Decades. (2013). USC Population Dynamics Research Group. Myers, D., & Pitkin, J.
- Youth Need Data. Get Healthy San Mateo County.
- More Data Sources For Demographics
- 2022 KIDS COUNT Data Book: State Trends in Child Well-Being. Annie E. Casey Foundation.
- California Health and Human Services Open Data Portal. California Health and Human Services Agency.
- California Health Interview Survey. UCLA Center for Health Policy Research.
- California School Climate, Health, and Learning Surveys Public Dashboards. WestEd & California Dept. of Education.
- California Strong Start Index. First 5 Association of California & Children’s Data Network.
- Childstats.gov. Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics.
- Health, United States – Data Finder. National Center for Health Statistics.
- KIDS COUNT Data Center. Annie E. Casey Foundation.
- Migration Data Hub. Migration Policy Institute.
- U.S. Census Bureau
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